The 2010 Nuclear Posture Review. Click the image to download the 72 page pdf.
Today, after many months of interagency talks and international consultation, the Obama administration announced that the 2010 Nuclear Posture Review is finally complete. You can download it by clicking the image above.
What is the Nuclear Posture Review, or NPR? As the Department of Defense describes it:
The Nuclear Posture Review is a roadmap for reducing America’s nuclear arsenal while maintaining an effective deterrent, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates said at the Pentagon today.
The congressionally mandated review charts the steps toward reducing nuclear risks to the United States, U.S. allies and partners, and the international community.
Basically, the NPR describes the what, when, how, and why of our nuclear weapons. Typically, each presidential administration performs such a review. Given President Obama’s repeated goal to reconsider the role of US nuclear weapons, and his view that the world is a safer place without them, we’ve all been very curious about the ultimate outcome of this NPR. Would it be a compromise between what the Pentagon wanted and what the White House wanted, or would the President’s will not be reflected in the document as much as some arms control advocates would like?
Well, it looks like the NPR is a very nice compromise document, with some rather interesting and exciting breaks from the past. Instead of strictly continuing Cold War policies, it’s more forward-looking than previous NPRs.
Let me explain.
A 21st Century Attitude
First of all, if you’re not up for reading the whole 72 page pdf, I’d highly recommend that you click here(pdf), and read the short NPR fact sheet. It lists five key objectives, two of which are noteworthy because they are very different from any previous administrations’ NPR goals:
Preventing nuclear proliferation and nuclear terrorism:
For the first time, the NPR places preventing nuclear proliferation and nuclear terrorism atop the U.S. nuclear agenda.
It defines specific steps to strengthen the global non-proliferation regime, and accelerate the securing of nuclear materials worldwide.
It renews the U.S. commitment to hold fully accountable any state, terrorist group, or other non-state actor that supports or enables terrorist efforts to obtain or use weapons of mass destruction, whether by facilitating, financing, or providing expertise or safe haven for such efforts.
Reducing the role of nuclear weapons:
Declaratory policy has been updated to bring it into alignment with 21st century needs.
The United States will not use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear weapons states that are party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and in compliance with their nuclear nonproliferation obligations.
The United States would only consider the use of nuclear weapons in extreme circumstances to defend the vital interests of the United States or its allies and partners.
The United States will continue to strengthen conventional capabilities and reduce the role of nuclear weapons in deterring non-nuclear attacks, with the objective of making deterrence of nuclear attack on the United States or our allies and partners the sole purpose of U.S. nuclear weapons.
So, the Obama administration’s nuclear weapons strategies are going to be geared more toward preventing nuclear terrorism; also, our weapons will now have a more restricted use than they ever have in the past.
Future Arms Reduction Treaties
The fact sheet also describes our New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) with Russia, and mentions the weapons reductions that the treaty has defined. It also mentions that all of our ICBMs will be “de-MIRVed”, so that they are only bearing one nuclear warhead instead of multiple warheads.
Additionally:
The United States will pursue post-New START arms control with Russia that addresses not only strategic weapons, but also non-strategic and non-deployed nuclear weapons.
This is where things get complicated with NATO, and discussions of regional deterrence; I won’t go into that now, but I can say that some of our European colleagues will be interested in this part of the NPR.
No New Nukes, No Nuclear Tests, and Ratification of the Test Ban Treaty
There’s much more, even in that short fact sheet; I’m going to be discussing a lot of aspects of the NPR over the next few weeks, but I’d like to highlight one more thing that really jumped out at us nuke wonks today. Of course, the NPR stresses that:
The United States will sustain a safe, secure, and effective nuclear arsenal as long as nuclear weapons exist. The United States will modernize the nuclear weapons infrastructure, sustain the science, technology, and engineering base, invest in human capital, and ensure senior leadership focus.
But:
The United States will not conduct nuclear testing, and will seek ratification and entry into force of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty.
The United States will not develop new nuclear warheads. Life Extension Programs (LEPs) will use only nuclear components based on previously tested designs, and will not support new military missions or provide for new military capabilities.
The Administration will study options for ensuring the safety, security, and reliability of nuclear warheads on a case-by-case basis, consistent with the congressionally mandated Stockpile Management Plan. The full range of LEP approaches will be considered: refurbishment of existing warheads, reuse of nuclear components from different warheads, and replacement of nuclear components.
(Bold emphasis mine.)
This is truly good news, on a number of fronts. There was some concern a while back that Gates would get his way and the NPR would have some concession to his interest in new nuclear warheads. It looks like the national security team, the Pentagon, the Department of Energy, and the White House managed to work things out so everyone, including the military, is happy with how our nuclear deterrent will be defined for the next five to ten years.
The strong backing for the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty is something to note as well. If you watched any of the NPR press conferences today, you probably noticed that Secretary of Defense Gates, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mike Mullen, and Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General James Cartwright were very firm on ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. That leaves its opponents out in the cold.
Stay Tuned
This is quite a document. There’s a hell of a lot of stuff to pick through, analyze, and digest. I’d strongly suggest that before anyone comments on it, they read the fact sheet at the very least. The whole document is well written, and not in the least boring.
I’ll have much more on the Nuclear Posture in the next few days, weeks, and probably months. Until then, I’ll leave you with this, from Joe Cirincione, President of the Ploughshares Fund, and nuclear weapons policy expert. Today, he told me that:
[T]his document is more accurately described as a transitional document. It is getting us out of the Cold War and into what Obama calls “the peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons”. It’s moving us in that direction. It’s giving us the road map. It doesn’t do it by itself. It’s got lots of caveats in it, and lots of conditionality in it, but it definitely just puts us on a new path, heading in a new direction, and there’s going to be lots more struggle over this issue. People should understand that it takes months — years — to implement the guidance provided in the Nuclear Posture Review.
Read it, digest it, and remember that this is a nice step in the right direction.
The 2010 Nuclear Posture Review: Looking Forward
Also published here.
The 2010 Nuclear Posture Review. Click the image to download the 72 page pdf.
Today, after many months of interagency talks and international consultation, the Obama administration announced that the 2010 Nuclear Posture Review is finally complete. You can download it by clicking the image above.
What is the Nuclear Posture Review, or NPR? As the Department of Defense describes it:
Basically, the NPR describes the what, when, how, and why of our nuclear weapons. Typically, each presidential administration performs such a review. Given President Obama’s repeated goal to reconsider the role of US nuclear weapons, and his view that the world is a safer place without them, we’ve all been very curious about the ultimate outcome of this NPR. Would it be a compromise between what the Pentagon wanted and what the White House wanted, or would the President’s will not be reflected in the document as much as some arms control advocates would like?
Well, it looks like the NPR is a very nice compromise document, with some rather interesting and exciting breaks from the past. Instead of strictly continuing Cold War policies, it’s more forward-looking than previous NPRs.
Let me explain.
A 21st Century Attitude
First of all, if you’re not up for reading the whole 72 page pdf, I’d highly recommend that you click here (pdf), and read the short NPR fact sheet. It lists five key objectives, two of which are noteworthy because they are very different from any previous administrations’ NPR goals:
So, the Obama administration’s nuclear weapons strategies are going to be geared more toward preventing nuclear terrorism; also, our weapons will now have a more restricted use than they ever have in the past.
Future Arms Reduction Treaties
The fact sheet also describes our New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) with Russia, and mentions the weapons reductions that the treaty has defined. It also mentions that all of our ICBMs will be “de-MIRVed”, so that they are only bearing one nuclear warhead instead of multiple warheads.
Additionally:
This is where things get complicated with NATO, and discussions of regional deterrence; I won’t go into that now, but I can say that some of our European colleagues will be interested in this part of the NPR.
No New Nukes, No Nuclear Tests, and Ratification of the Test Ban Treaty
There’s much more, even in that short fact sheet; I’m going to be discussing a lot of aspects of the NPR over the next few weeks, but I’d like to highlight one more thing that really jumped out at us nuke wonks today. Of course, the NPR stresses that:
But:
(Bold emphasis mine.)
This is truly good news, on a number of fronts. There was some concern a while back that Gates would get his way and the NPR would have some concession to his interest in new nuclear warheads. It looks like the national security team, the Pentagon, the Department of Energy, and the White House managed to work things out so everyone, including the military, is happy with how our nuclear deterrent will be defined for the next five to ten years.
The strong backing for the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty is something to note as well. If you watched any of the NPR press conferences today, you probably noticed that Secretary of Defense Gates, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mike Mullen, and Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General James Cartwright were very firm on ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. That leaves its opponents out in the cold.
Stay Tuned
This is quite a document. There’s a hell of a lot of stuff to pick through, analyze, and digest. I’d strongly suggest that before anyone comments on it, they read the fact sheet at the very least. The whole document is well written, and not in the least boring.
I’ll have much more on the Nuclear Posture in the next few days, weeks, and probably months. Until then, I’ll leave you with this, from Joe Cirincione, President of the Ploughshares Fund, and nuclear weapons policy expert. Today, he told me that:
Read it, digest it, and remember that this is a nice step in the right direction.