The bottom line is this: for the foreseeable future, the United States and other nations will face an existential threat from the intersection of terrorism and weapons of mass destruction. Preventing terrorists from obtaining weapons or materials of mass destruction is a far more exacting arms control goal than existed during the 1970s and 1980s, when a successful agreement might allow for thousands of new nuclear weapons.
I believe that we can develop the international practices and norms that can almost guarantee that terrorists will not have access to nuclear weapons. In doing so, we can transform our world into a place that is more secure and more connected than it has ever been.
It’s arguable that one of the biggest US foreign policy successes has been the implementation of the Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction Program in 1991, which has had incredible success in helping the former Soviet republics secure their bomb-grade plutonium and uranium. A particularly dramatic example of the program at work was Project Sapphire, in which 600 kg (1,322 lb) of highly enriched uranium was removed from a virtually unprotected storage site in Kazakhstan and transported to the US, where it could be stored in a highly secure facility. In the hands of someone with the right know-how, that would be enough to make at least 20-25 nuclear bombs, possibly more.
During Project Sapphire, more than 1,300 pounds of highly-enriched uranium was located in a warehouse in Kazakhstan. It was subsequently flown to the US.Credit: Andy Weber/From 'The Dead Hand: The Untold Story of the Cold War Arms Race and Its Dangerous Legacy'
“Loose Nukes” Around The World: A Real Risk
Former Soviet republics aren’t the only places where there might be fissile material available, unsecured or otherwise. The International Panel on Fissile Materials describes the situation in great detail on their website and in their extensive 2009 report (pdf) which emphasizes the more general nuclear disarmament picture:
Put simply, ending the threat from nuclear weapons will involve securing, safeguarding and eliminating the current worldwide stockpile of about 1600 tons of highly enriched uranium and 500 tons of separated plutonium. Large steps in that direction also will be required to support the deep cuts in nuclear arsenals that will be part of the nearer-term nuclear-disarmament process.
It has also been known for some time that it has been a goal of terrorist groups to get hold of this type of nuclear material. By now, thanks to the overblown rhetoric of the Bush years, and television shows like “24“, a lot of lay people just shrug and assume it’s not a concern, but the experts certainly don’t. In fact, Senator Lugar’s survey of 83 of these experts around the world showed strong agreement that if a nuclear weapon is used, it will be used by terrorists and not a state, and that the material would be acquired on the black market.
President Obama’s Nuclear Security Summit
It is these “loose nukes” and their associated security issues in which President Obama has been interested since he was in the Senate. Several months after he was inaugurated, he announced his goal to promote “an international effort to secure vulnerable nuclear materials within four years”, as part of an international Nuclear Security Summit.
President Obama’s Nuclear Security Summit is taking place in Washington, DC this week, starting today, with several bilateral meetings with President Obama. Fifty leaders and heads of state will be attending (pdf), making it the biggest such gathering since the founding of the UN in 1945. It’s the first time that nuclear security has ever been addressed by this many nations, at this level. The word “historic” is often overused these days, but I think it applies in this case.
On a very detailed press call with Gary Samore, White House Coordinator for WMD Counter-Terrorism and Arms Control, and Ben Rhodes, Deputy National Security Advisor for Strategic Communications, we also learned that the goals of the summit are the following:
Discuss the nature of the threat of nuclear terrorism. The summit will only focus on nuclear terrorism and not radiological terrorism. (The difference is explained here.)
Set a plan of action that will result in securing vulnerable civilian and military fissile material (separated plutonium and highly enriched uranium) within four years.
Get specific commitments from each country, and set specific goals regarding security of nuclear materials in each country.
There will be related discussions about setting up the legal and regulatory structure needed to maintain security of nuclear materials in private industry settings.
The emphasis will be on practical measures they can take in the near term, focusing on the systems that is already available within each country.
Commit to multilateral, international cooperation to prevent smuggling of nuclear materials.
Finally, the leaders will issue a high-level communiqué committing to these goals and recognizing that nuclear terrorism is a serious threat.
Rhodes summarized:
… [W]e believe this summit is the beginning of what will be a very aggressive and international effort that speaks to President Obama’s focus on nuclear security as a top national security priority and also speaks to his strong commitment to multilateral cooperation to achieve important goals.
I also spoke with the Chairman of the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, Lt. General Robert G. Gard, Jr. (USA, ret.), who pointed out that bringing together so many leaders, at such a high-profile summit, will hopefully bring the issue to the attention of the general public, as something real, not fictional, and not simply political rhetoric. Regarding use of a nuclear device by a non-state actor, Gard said:
If there is a relatively small probability that this can occur, it would be so devastating, if it did, that you simply must take action to hedge against it.
This summit is an important first step in positive, international action against the possibility of nuclear terrorism. The outcome should be very interesting, and we’ll know more after it’s over. Stay tuned.
Note: In the meantime, Julian Borger of the UK Guardian is at the summit, so follow his blog posts. Also check out the Center for Strategic and International Studies Project on Nuclear Issues blog, the Arms Control Association, the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation’s Nukes of Hazard blog, and the IAEA’s nuclear security links.
Taking Action: President Obama’s Nuclear Security Summit
Also published here.
It’s arguable that one of the biggest US foreign policy successes has been the implementation of the Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction Program in 1991, which has had incredible success in helping the former Soviet republics secure their bomb-grade plutonium and uranium. A particularly dramatic example of the program at work was Project Sapphire, in which 600 kg (1,322 lb) of highly enriched uranium was removed from a virtually unprotected storage site in Kazakhstan and transported to the US, where it could be stored in a highly secure facility. In the hands of someone with the right know-how, that would be enough to make at least 20-25 nuclear bombs, possibly more.
During Project Sapphire, more than 1,300 pounds of highly-enriched uranium was located in a warehouse in Kazakhstan. It was subsequently flown to the US.Credit: Andy Weber/From 'The Dead Hand: The Untold Story of the Cold War Arms Race and Its Dangerous Legacy'
“Loose Nukes” Around The World: A Real Risk
Former Soviet republics aren’t the only places where there might be fissile material available, unsecured or otherwise. The International Panel on Fissile Materials describes the situation in great detail on their website and in their extensive 2009 report (pdf) which emphasizes the more general nuclear disarmament picture:
It has also been known for some time that it has been a goal of terrorist groups to get hold of this type of nuclear material. By now, thanks to the overblown rhetoric of the Bush years, and television shows like “24“, a lot of lay people just shrug and assume it’s not a concern, but the experts certainly don’t. In fact, Senator Lugar’s survey of 83 of these experts around the world showed strong agreement that if a nuclear weapon is used, it will be used by terrorists and not a state, and that the material would be acquired on the black market.
President Obama’s Nuclear Security Summit
It is these “loose nukes” and their associated security issues in which President Obama has been interested since he was in the Senate. Several months after he was inaugurated, he announced his goal to promote “an international effort to secure vulnerable nuclear materials within four years”, as part of an international Nuclear Security Summit.
President Obama’s Nuclear Security Summit is taking place in Washington, DC this week, starting today, with several bilateral meetings with President Obama. Fifty leaders and heads of state will be attending (pdf), making it the biggest such gathering since the founding of the UN in 1945. It’s the first time that nuclear security has ever been addressed by this many nations, at this level. The word “historic” is often overused these days, but I think it applies in this case.
On a very detailed press call with Gary Samore, White House Coordinator for WMD Counter-Terrorism and Arms Control, and Ben Rhodes, Deputy National Security Advisor for Strategic Communications, we also learned that the goals of the summit are the following:
Rhodes summarized:
I also spoke with the Chairman of the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, Lt. General Robert G. Gard, Jr. (USA, ret.), who pointed out that bringing together so many leaders, at such a high-profile summit, will hopefully bring the issue to the attention of the general public, as something real, not fictional, and not simply political rhetoric. Regarding use of a nuclear device by a non-state actor, Gard said:
This summit is an important first step in positive, international action against the possibility of nuclear terrorism. The outcome should be very interesting, and we’ll know more after it’s over. Stay tuned.
Note: In the meantime, Julian Borger of the UK Guardian is at the summit, so follow his blog posts. Also check out the Center for Strategic and International Studies Project on Nuclear Issues blog, the Arms Control Association, the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation’s Nukes of Hazard blog, and the IAEA’s nuclear security links.